Big Day Stats

How to Use Our Stats

How to Use Our Stats

I've always believed that the best handicapping tool is the human mind. Computers can help us file, sort and even process data into useful information. But information from computers will always be based on a certain criteria and the human mind can take into consideration things a computer cannot.

Our Stat Guides are never meant to take the place of basic handicapping principal of class, form, pedigree, etc. They are meant to help you include horses that fit a certain criteria that have a higher percentage chance of winning or finishing in the money based off historical data. It also helps you eliminate horses and false favorites using this same data.

I once had a business professional that I respect say to me, "In the business world never make a decision based solely on the numbers, but never ever make a decision without the numbers." I think this is very true in the world of horse racing. Statistics may not take into consideration traffic issues, pace, etc., but going against something that statistically has happened 85% of the time may not be wise either.

Our guides contain a lot of stats and information. Some stats are extremely useful and others are basic. For instance, a simple glance at the post position table may show that no horse has an advantage over another solely based on post position. But, the next table down may show that 45% of the winners have won while racing on the lead.

Or, the post time favorite may win 33% of time, which is around average. But a closer look will show you that the post time favorite finishes in the superfecta 85% of the time. This would tell you that while you don't necessarily have to use the post time favorite in the win spot, you should definitely include them in your superfecta, even if it is just as a saver. I don't know about you, but if I know something is going to happen 85% of the time, I am not going to go against that very often, if at all.

Our guides do not offer you picks or selections for races, rather they allow you to formulate your own ideas by comparing useful stats with the past performances (PP's) you already use. I think this is better because it lets you chose which stats you think are pertinent to the race and allows your mind to decide which horses best fit these stats.

One should always keep in mind that historical stats are just that, they are stats. They happened in the past and in no way guarantee that something is going to happen a certain way in the future. It's important to keep in mind that if something happens 70% of the time in a race, then in 3 out of 10 races (30%) it is not going to happen.

To use our Guides successfully take the stats that seem most useful to a specific race and then let them help you include or exclude horses and then apply your own handicapping skills.

Should you have questions about how to use our Guides, please feel free to contact me.

For purchased Guides, after the post position draw for each race I will email all the customers who purchased that stats guide a past performance sheet. This sheet will show the running lines for the major prep races for each horse. The running lines will have my trip notes as well as our par rating for each race.

Thank you for your interest and I hope you enjoy the guides!